Nexus eNote 1.8.2008

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Nexus eNote

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Beef

Week Ending

1/4/08

12/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

528,000

483,000

526,000

109.3%

100.4%

Beef (million lbs)

412.6

379.9

411.0

108.6%

100.4%

Choice Value

148.05

147.69

146.26

100.2%

101.2%

Select Value

136.97

136.11

131.46

100.6%

104.2%

Choice/Select Spread

11.08

11.58

14.80

95.7%

74.9%

Dressed Steer Weight

849

858

871

99.0%

97.5%

Dressed Heifer Weight

763

768

765

99.3%

99.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

1/4/08

12/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,320

1,330

1,321

99.2%

99.9%

Live Heifer Weight

1,189

1,202

1,195

98.9%

99.5%

5 Area Cattle Price

94.53

92.21

88.88

102.5%

106.4%

Nearby Cattle Futures

92.22

93.50

94.55

98.6%

97.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

1/4/08

12/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

4.67

4.52

3.62

103.3%

129.0%

Nearby Soybean Futures

12.49

12.08

6.63

103.4%

188.4%

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

· USDA raised its 2008 pork production forecast to 22.7 billion pounds from 22.2 billion that it forecasted in December.  In 2007, pork production was estimated at 21.9 billion pounds.  They also raised their 2008 export forecast to 3.685 billion pounds versus the 3.160 billion pounds forecasted in December.  If feed costs continue to climb higher, the weight gains may begin to be limited which will ultimately affect pounds of pork production.

· By-product values are currently 5.7% higher than a year ago at $128.78/head.  This increase is due to the strong demand for tallow and hides.  This trend in the by-product price has helped prevent the packer losses from being even worse than they have been this fall and winter.  By-product values should remain strong as long as energy costs remain high but what does this mean to cattle producers?  Some researchers suggest that a 10% increase in by-product value can increase live cattle prices by 2.5%.

· USDA estimates that the price for live cattle in 2008 will range between $88 and $95 per cwt compared to the estimated $91.82 in 2007.  Exports are expected to equal 1.71 billion pounds compared to 1.45 pounds in 2007.

· Approximately 5.4 billion bushels corn will need to be used in order to create the 36 billion gallons of ethanol that are part of the energy bill recently required by President Bush.  Currently the U.S. has the ability to produce 7.2 billion gallons while additional plants with the ability to produce 6.2 gallons are currently under construction.

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