Nexus eNote 1.22.2008

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Nexus eNote

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Nexus eNote

 

Beef

Week Ending

1/18/08

1/11/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

651,000

631,000

620,000

103.2%

105.0%

Beef (million lbs)

505.6

493.9

482.3

102.4%

104.8%

Choice Value

147.34

149.24

154.56

98.7%

95.3%

Select Value

139.69

138.95

141.45

100.5%

98.8%

Choice/Select Spread

7.66

10.30

13.11

74.4%

58.4%

Dressed Steer Weight

844

854

855

98.8%

98.7%

Dressed Heifer Weight

760

755

770

100.7%

98.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

1/18/08

1/11/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,306

1,303

1,318

100.2%

99.1%

Live Heifer Weight

1,183

1,191

1,200

99.3%

98.6%

5 Area Cattle Price

90.09

91.40

86.73

98.6%

103.9%

Nearby Cattle Futures

91.00

91.35

92.40

99.6%

98.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

1/18/08

1/11/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

4.98

4.95

4.12

100.6%

120.9%

Nearby Soybean Futures

12.64

12.99

7.16

97.3%

176.5%

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

· January 1 Cattle on Feed: On Feed 101.0%, Placements 99.2%, Marketings 101.2%

· For the week ending January 12th, cow slaughter was 7% higher than 2007.

· How does beef compare to the competition in total meat production?

        

2007

% of Total

Beef:

26,515

29.5%

Pork:

21,959

24.5%

Broilers

35,492

39.5%

Turkey:

5,825

6.5%

Total:

90,127

 

Source: CME Group Daily Livestock Report

· We’ve all heard about China’s growing economy.  As their income grows, so does their demand for better food.  Even though the meat consumption in China is only 60% of the world average, in 2006 meat consumption was 4kg per capita; in 2007 it was 12kg. 

· 2007 USDA data suggests that 50% of all soybeans and 60% of all corn were dedicated to ethanol and biofuel production.

· It’s been indicated this week that trade with South Korea will resume in stages as part of a free trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea.  Koreans will have 31% more buying power today than they had in 2003 thanks to exchange rates and increases in per capita income.  If full resumption of trade would resume, what can U.S. cattle producers expect?  Cattle-Fax suggests that if bone-in product from animals of any age would once again be allowed into Korea, U.S. fed cattle prices could improve $12-15/head ($0.90.  -$1.20/cwt. live).  Increased values of $1.50-$2.00/cwt. live could be seen with additional value from chuck rolls, middle meant, etc. 

· Another positive note in regard to exports is that Russia increased their quotas for beef imports from the U.S. to 18,300 metric tons in comparison to 18,100 previously reported.

· It was forecasted this week at the Minnesota Pork Congress that over 200,000 sows in the U.S. and Canada will be liquidated.  An estimated 10,000 sows per week are currently being liquidated in these two countries.  Although this is bearish news for pork producers in the short term, the long term forecast is good with expected short supply and good demand.

· Generally we see the beef cutout gain in value after the holidays, not so this year.  The choice cut out only gained $0.47 in the first 11 days of 2008 compared to an increase of $11.96 in 2007.

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

 

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