Nexus eNote 6.13.2008

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Beef

Week Ending

6/13/08

6/6/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

686,000

692,000

713,000

99.1%

96.2%

Beef (million lbs)

521.5

525.0

543.8

99.3%

95.9%

Choice Value

157.03

156.90

147.63

100.1%

106.4%

Select Value

152.91

152.82

140.84

100.1%

108.6%

Choice/Select Spread

4.12

4.08

6.79

101.0%

60.7%

Dressed Steer Weight

841

835

821

100.7%

102.4%

Dressed Heifer Weight

752

772

737

97.4%

102.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

6/13/08

6/6/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,288

1,279

1,275

100.7%

101.0%

Live Heifer Weight

1,151

1,160

1,161

99.2%

99.1%

5 Area Cattle Price

93.11

94.00

89.69

99.1%

103.8%

Nearby Cattle Futures

95.58

93.85

89.65

101.8%

106.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

6/13/08

6/6/08

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

7.32

6.50

4.04

112.6%

181.2%

Nearby Soybean Futures

15.60

14.57

8.26

107.1%

188.9%

 

I would like to take this opportunity to share with you that I will soon be leaving Nexus Marketing.  I have truly enjoyed working with you over the past two years, and I am thankful for a great experience.  I wish you all the very best!

 

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

§      Foodservice demand for beef is struggling according to the Daily Livestock Report.  The struggle is likely to persist with the continued high oil prices and the possibility of even higher gasoline prices this summer.

§      What are crop conditions like in the Corn Belt?  As of Sunday 6/15, more than half the Iowa crop is rated only fair or worse.  A year ago in mid-June, 78%t of Iowa’s corn rated good or excellent.  Illinois share of crops that rated fair, poor or very poor this year is also above 50%.  In Nebraska, regularly third in corn production, 66 percent of the crop is good or excellent, but that’s down 9% from last year.

§      CANFAX’s monthly Cattle on Feed report for Alberta and Saskatchewan indicates that western Canada’s feedlot inventories are 10.2% lower than last June.  That continues a pattern of year-over-year declines that dates to last August.

§      Tired of corn and ethanol taking all the blame for increased food costs?  The Ethanol Promotion and Information Council has stated that the total global increase in corn-based ethanol production accounts for only about three percent of the recent increase in global food prices, according to facts from the Council of Economic Advisors.  Record setting energy prices, record high fuel prices and crude oil trading at more than $135 a barrel, the cost of growing, harvesting and transporting food has increased exponentially. The energy costs faced by U.S. growers and truckers as they fuel machinery, tractors, and semi trucks is directly related to the cost of food at the retail level.  And, according to Ed Schafer, the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman wrote in a recent letter that without ethanol gas prices would be $0.20 to $0.35 per gallon higher.

§      How does the American public feel about ethanol?  41% of Americans want Congress to entirely revoke the corn ethanol mandate, 35% want it to revoke the law it passed in December to double it, only 6% want the mandate to increase as planned and 5% want it to be expanded further; this according to a recent poll release by the National Center for Public Policy Research.

§      Yields and total planted corn acres are already being reported with the flooding seen across the Corn Belt.  Experts say that although the weather is expected to improve, the damage is irreversible.  USDA has already lowered the total planted acres by 2 million and the latest yield estimated was decreased by 5 bushels per acre.

§      The New York Times recently reported that in some parts of the country, families are paying as much as 15% of their income (not disposable income but total income) on fuel.  Beef prices have benefited some by good weather and plenty of demand across a lot of the US East Coast but only time will tell how well demand will hold up going into the summer and fall.

§      Cattle feeders are currently feeling the strain of the ever-increasing corn price.  According to Cattle Buyers Weekly, on average, cattle producers are loosing about $150/head currently.  To an industry slaughtering 525,000 steers and heifers each day, that makes a loss of $79M per week.

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