Nexus eNote 9.25.2007

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Nexus eNote

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Beef

Week Ending

9/21/07

9/14/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

645,000

643,000

658,000

100.3%

98.0%

Beef (million lbs)

506.6

504.3

517.2

100.5%

98.0%

Choice Value

145.73

147.07

142.09

99.1%

102.6%

Select Value

137.25

139.87

132.93

98.1%

103.2%

Choice/Select Spread

8.49

7.19

9.16

118.1%

92.7%

Dressed Steer Weight

867

856

861

101.3%

100.7%

Dressed Heifer Weight

775

766

758

101.2%

102.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

9/21/07

9/14/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,340

1,365

1,316

98.2%

101.8%

Live Heifer Weight

1,203

1,209

1,186

99.5%

101.4%

5 Area Cattle Price

93.71

92.43

88.54

101.4%

105.8%

Nearby Cattle Futures

96.70

95.25

89.75

101.5%

107.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

9/21/07

9/14/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

3.76

3.49

2.57

107.7%

146.3%

Nearby Soybean Futures

9.79

9.54

5.58

102.6%

175.4%

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

·   September 1 Cattle on Feed: On Feed 93.8%, Placements 92.5%, Marketings 100%

·   Aflatoxins, a group of chemicals produced by certain mold fungi which can be fatal to livestock and are considered carcinogens to humans and livestock, have been found in some of the corn crop in Northwest Iowa.  The incidences have been limited thus far but the warm, dry summer which drought stressed the corn also provided a perfect environment for the aflatoxins to grow.

·   HedgersEdge.com reports that packers lost an average of $33.82/head the week ending September 21.  This loss stems from the packers not being able to increase box beef prices enough to offset their live cattle costs. 

·   Considerable amounts of pork and poultry are available at the meat counter; both at cheaper prices than beef.  Beef has averaged historically high levels year-to-date.  The average Choice retail price for 2007 is $4.16/lb; 1-2% above the previous Jan-Aug average high, according to Cattle-Fax.

·   Feed grain prices in drought ravaged Australia have doubled since June and the cattle market is being dramatically affected.  Australia is the biggest beef exporter by value and second biggest by volume and cattle are fed wheat, barley and sorghum.  With the government recently forecasting that the wheat crop will be at least 30% less than anticipated and private forecasters saying the crop could be half original estimates; feed costs, pasture conditions, live and feeder cattle prices, or beef prices  look like they will be recovering anytime soon.

·   Since August 3rd, hog futures have declined 20% due to decreased export demand to China.  Also, hog imports from Canada were 11% higher in the first seven months of 2007 than in 2006.  The imports of hogs (and cattle) from Canada are expected to slow as the U.S. dollar looses strength in comparison to the Canadian dollar.

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

 

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