Nexus eNote 10.9.2007

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Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

Beef

Week Ending

10/5/07

9/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

672,000

654,000

635,000

102.8%

105.8%

Beef (million lbs)

529.2

513.8

500.4

103.0%

105.8%

Choice Value

146.64

146.68

142.35

100.0%

103.0%

Select Value

136.36

137.47

134.26

99.2%

101.6%

Choice/Select Spread

10.27

9.21

8.09

111.5%

126.9%

Dressed Steer Weight

873

869

864

100.5%

101.0%

Dressed Heifer Weight

779

777

764

100.3%

102.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

10/5/07

9/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,348

1,340

1,343

100.6%

100.4%

Live Heifer Weight

1,199

1,198

1,214

100.1%

98.8%

5 Area Cattle Price

91.47

95.34

89.68

95.9%

102.0%

Nearby Cattle Futures

93.67

96.95

91.35

96.6%

102.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

10/5/07

9/28/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

3.42

3.73

2.72

91.7%

125.7%

Nearby Soybean Futures

9.40

9.91

5.65

94.9%

166.4%

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

v   Are cattle feeders current in their marketings?  Not according to the carcass weights; fed steer carcass weights set a new record at 856 lbs.  The heavy carcasses are being noticed by the packers too.  Some have started discounting them.

v   Hog plants posted record numbers last week – a slaughter of 2.321 million head.

v   The fifth largest food recall in history has led to the closure of Topps Meat Company.  They were recently forced to recall 21.7 million lbs of frozen ground beef for E.coli 0157:H7.  More recently, ConAgra Foods stopped production of its Banquet pot pies because there are reported illnesses caused by salmonella and Cargill Meat Solutions had a ground beef recall over the weekend.

v   Beef and pork are fighting it out in the grocery store.  Cattle-Fax reports that when beef prices, in relationship to pork, are from 2.3 to 2.6 the market reacts and one of two things happens: beef moves lower or pork moves higher.  On October 5 the ratio was 2.35 and currently projections are for it to go to 2.6 with the beef cut-out improving $7-8 over the next six weeks while the pork cut-out typically decreases $1-3 in those same six weeks.

v   What are food companies doing to offset high commodity purchase prices?  Kellogg increased prices 5% (based on weight) in April.  General Mills decreased the package size of their cereals and Starbucks increased their prices to cover the higher cost of milk.

v   Ethanol futures traded earlier this year at $2.50 and are currently trading at $1.55 while corn traded above $4.00 and is now below $3.50.  How are these figures affecting the ethanol industry?  According to an article in the Minneapolis Star Tribune, some companies are putting already proposed plants on hold while others are putting any new projects on hold.  Several major ethanol companies went public last summer and the pressure of investors in those companies expect to see financial returns.   The future for ethanol looks bright but companies will likely encounter some hard times while demand catches up with the supply that the Midwest is currently producing.

Nexus eNote

Nexus eNote

 

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