Nexus eNote 12.18.2007

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The staff at Nexus Marketing wishes

you a joyous holiday season!

Beef

Week Ending

12/14/07

12/7/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Slaughter

652,000

663,000

642,000

98.3%

101.6%

Beef (million lbs)

515.2

523.3

504.8

98.5%

102.1%

Choice Value

147.70

148.33

143.41

96.7%

103.0%

Select Value

132.14

132.30

125.32

94.7%

105.4%

Choice/Select Spread

15.55

16.03

18.08

112.8%

86.0%

Dressed Steer Weight

872

877

879

99.4%

99.2%

Dressed Heifer Weight

775

790

770

98.1%

100.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Live Cattle

Week Ending

12/14/07

12/7/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Live Steer Weight

1,331

1,339

1,328

99.4%

100.2%

Live Heifer Weight

1,200

1,204

1,213

99.7%

98.9%

5 Area Cattle Price

92.68

93.54

85.06

99.1%

109.0%

Nearby Cattle Futures

92.60

94.02

85.45

98.5%

108.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grain

Week Ending

12/14/07

12/7/07

Year Ago

% of Prior Week

% of Prior Year

Nearby Corn Futures

4.38

3.99

3.72

109.8%

117.7%

Nearby Soybean Futures

11.57

11.19

6.63

103.4%

174.5%

 

The next eNote will be sent during the first week of January.

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· December 1 Cattle on Feed: On Feed 100.9%, Placements 112.3%, Marketed 96.7%

· Cattle-Fax reports that in 2007, retail beef prices averaged record highs.  Per capita, $247 was spent on beef, up $9.63 from 2006.  Total per capita spending grew by $20 to $552.  These prices are expected to remain high in 2008 which will test the American consumer during tough economic times.

· Packer losses in the third quarter averaged $13.15 per head and are expected to be around $37 per head in the fourth quarter.  Andrew Gottschalk of HedgersEdge.com reports that this is the longest period of these large losses in all of the years that he has computed packer margins.  The crux of the problem is that other meat is available at lower prices.

· A 4–5% increase in beef production is expected during the first quarter of 2008.

· Is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) affected by the price of corn?  Cattle Buyers Weekly reports that historically there has been little relationship; only 4% of the change in the food CPI is contributed by corn futures prices.  What has a stronger correlation is the marketing bill (costs of labor, transportation, packaging, etc). 

· An excellent export market is helping the hog market.  Even though slaughter is up 8% from the 4th quarter of 2006, the lean hog carcass is only about 5% lower than the same period last year.

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