Cattle Today

10.15 Markets

Cattle

December: day 1 of a sell signal. April: day 1 of a sell signal. Nov feeders: day 1 of a sell signal.
Cattle trends turned negative.
Cash cattle expected to trade higher next week.
Bulls believe cash will pop over $124/cwt and quickly move ot $130/cwt
Choice beef feels like it is bottoming
Marketed is overbought but breaks have solid buying on weakness.
Packer margins are $550/head in the black.
Cash cattle mostly $124 live in NE, up $1-2/cwt, $196 dressed. Cash trade in TX and KS steady.
In Nebraska, compared to last week, steers under 650 pounds were steady to $6 higher and heifers were steady to $4 higher.
Asking prices $125 live, $198 dressed. Bids $124 live $196 dressed.
Boxed beef higher on good demand and moderate offerings.
Slaughter since July is 111% vs yr ago, cumulative 109%, largest since 2011.
8.55 of the herd has been slaughtered since Jan 1^st inventory, largest since 2011.
Heifer slaughter does not show indications of retentions.
Market is current with ample supplies and weights increasing.
Seasonally cattle are a buy.
Beef: Net sales of 15,700 MT reported for 2021 were up 1 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (4,400 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), China (3,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Taiwan (1,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales reductions of 300 MT for 2022 resulting in increases for Chile (500 MT) and Taiwan (300 MT), were more than offset by reductions primarily for South Korea (1,000 MT).
Exports of 15,500 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (4,400 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), China (2,400 MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Mexico (1,100 MT).
Slaughter 119,000, 120,000 wk ago, 119,000 yr ago.
Feeder Cattle Index: 154.01 vs 154.26 prior.
Boxed Beef: Choice 280.32 +.30 Select 260.68 +1.98 Ch/Se spread 19.64 on 143 loads

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